“Never make predictions, especially about the future.”- manager Casey Stengel, seven-time World Series champion with the New York Yankees
Earlier this winter, Charles Krauthammer remarked that the extended primary process enacted by Republicans for 2012 was hurting the party. In a knee jerk reaction to the quick McCain coronation in 2008, the rules governing the primary contests changed to ensure a longer fight which would allow voters to get an extended look at the entire field. But, in a year in which the incumbent is being challenged, it is detrimental to keep the focus off the President for an extended period of time. Given the state of the country under Mr. Obama’s presidency the last three and a half years, it was especially disadvantageous to Republicans not to keep this focus.
Since then, the Republican primary has unofficially come to a close. Governor Mitt Romney is the lone nominee left standing, and the spotlight shines on only two men. Since then we’ve seen a dramatic shift in polling for both contenders: rising for Mr. Romney, and currently in a downward trend for the President.
In February 2012 Mr. Romney faced serious problems. Amidst the Republicans’ fumbled birth control debate and a nasty primary, he found himself fending off attacks on various fronts while the President was able to remain above the fray raging between his Republican challengers. At that time, Governor Romney had a Gallup favorability rating (different from job approval as he technically has no job) at 39%. This week, it is at his highest at 50%– nearly identical to the president’s. This indicates not only a coalescence of conservatives around the governor, but it seems after a closer look given by moderates and independents, Mr. Romney simply comes off as a good guy. A father of five and devoted husband, much like the President the governor is a family man that is affable and respectful to the public he hopes to lead.
The bad news for the President is not only the better numbers for Mr. Romney, but the downward trend of his own. Given the cover of an unfriendly Republican primary, an incumbent president should kick off his race against his main contender in a comfortable lead-in May 1980, President Carter lead Governor Reagan 49-41. Whether that leads evaporates or extends over time is up to voters, but coming out of the gate this close is a troubling indicator for Mr. Obama and Democrats. The current RealClearPolitics average has Mr. Obama ahead in the national polls by 2.4%: but tied in Gallup (45-45) and losing in Rasmussen (45-46). Both these polling companies have been the most reliable measure of public opinion approaching presidential elections in the last two decades. Granted, none of these numbers indicate that a poll taken in the middle of May will predict the winner six months away- but it does take an accurate temperature of the voter’s views on both candidates in the moment. And when opening a national campaign, unless you’re Andrew Johnson, being tied with the challenger is not a good sign for a sitting president.
Even more disturbing for the President, Governor Romney is on the rise in blue states such as Wisconsin where the President won by ten points in 2008. He now only leads the governor in the RCP average by 1.6%. Even worse for the president, a Rasmussen poll this week has Mr. Romney ahead of Mr. Obama in North Carolina by eight points (51-43). In 2008, Mr. Obama only won North Carolina by 13,692 votes, or 0.4% points. This data is disconcerting for the Democrats who consider a southern state like North Carolina important to hold in their march toward 270; and the biggest reason they are staging their national convention there in September. If traditional blue states like Wisconsin and states the president narrowly won in 2008 continue in this fashion, the Obama campaign will have to spend money in places they did not need to spend it in four years ago. This will then divert money from and weaken the President‘s bid in battlegrounds like North Carolina where the money is needed, putting more states in play and opening up the door to added electoral votes for Mr. Romney.
There are still six months until the election- a political lifetime where events and surprises can change the fate of either candidate twice over before the first bell of the first debate is rung. In no way this writer is saying these polls are telling us Mr. Romney will win in November. But they do say he is doing well in May.
– John P. Burns
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